Michael Wulfsohn
Michael Wulfsohn

Tracing the learning curve: On cryptocurrency prices, volatility, and eventual adoption

Tracing the learning curve: On cryptocurrency prices, volatility, and eventual adoption

26/08/2025

Asset pricing;Blockchain_Cryptocurrencies

14:30

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15:00

We analyze how early-stage investors evaluate potential investments by using ChatGPT to analyze 5,143 expert consultation calls. Companies discussed in these calls are 15 percentage points more likely to receive financing in the following quarter. Positive signals about technology integration and customer acquisition increase deal likelihood by 14% and 10.5%, respectively, with their predictive power declining by over 75% for mature companies. Market analysis and business strategy discussions – comprising over 40% of call content—show minimal predictive power for investment outcomes. Our findings document both how investors overcome information asymmetries in early-stage investing and a misalignment between the information they seek and the information that predicts investment outcomes. Methodologically, we demonstrate the potential of LLMs to extract nuanced insights from complex qualitative data.

We analyze how early-stage investors evaluate potential investments by using ChatGPT to analyze 5,143 expert consultation calls. Companies discussed in these calls are 15 percentage points more likely to receive financing in the following quarter. Positive signals about technology integration and customer acquisition increase deal likelihood by 14% and 10.5%, respectively, with their predictive power declining by over 75% for mature companies. Market analysis and business strategy discussions – comprising over 40% of call content—show minimal predictive power for investment outcomes. Our findings document both how investors overcome information asymmetries in early-stage investing and a misalignment between the information they seek and the information that predicts investment outcomes. Methodologically, we demonstrate the potential of LLMs to extract nuanced insights from complex qualitative data.

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