Katrin Tinn
Katrin Tinn

A Theory Model of Digital Currency with Asymmetric Privacy

A Theory Model of Digital Currency with Asymmetric Privacy

26/08/2025

Blockchain_Cryptocurrencies;Financial inclusion;FinTech

16:30

-

17:00

This paper investigates the puzzling negative empirical relationship between tail risk and expected return. Using Expected Shortfall as a measure of tail risk, this study decomposes it into elemental systematic and idiosyncratic components which allow for a deep probing of the relationship. The evidence suggests that while Expected Shortfall is an important determinant of expected returns, it earns a negative risk premium in stark contradiction of theory. After verifying empirically the negative tail risk premium anomaly, the paper investigates how the systematic and idiosyncratic components of tail risk influence expected returns and challenges prevailing explanations of tail risk premia. The negative tail risk premium anomaly is driven mainly by idiosyncratic Expected Shortfall. Moreover, contradicting recent findings in the literature which document that systematic tail risk has a positive impact on expected returns, the systematic Expected Shortfall is either negative or at times insignificantly positive. This is a new and puzzling finding. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the drivers behind tail risk anomalies and hold implications for both investment strategies and the interpretation of tail risk-return relationships.

This paper investigates the puzzling negative empirical relationship between tail risk and expected return. Using Expected Shortfall as a measure of tail risk, this study decomposes it into elemental systematic and idiosyncratic components which allow for a deep probing of the relationship. The evidence suggests that while Expected Shortfall is an important determinant of expected returns, it earns a negative risk premium in stark contradiction of theory. After verifying empirically the negative tail risk premium anomaly, the paper investigates how the systematic and idiosyncratic components of tail risk influence expected returns and challenges prevailing explanations of tail risk premia. The negative tail risk premium anomaly is driven mainly by idiosyncratic Expected Shortfall. Moreover, contradicting recent findings in the literature which document that systematic tail risk has a positive impact on expected returns, the systematic Expected Shortfall is either negative or at times insignificantly positive. This is a new and puzzling finding. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the drivers behind tail risk anomalies and hold implications for both investment strategies and the interpretation of tail risk-return relationships.

Antonio Gargano
Keynote: "Lessons from fintech-academic collaborations"
25-27 August 2025

25/08/2025

Antonio Gargano

Keynote
Antonio Gargano
Keynote: "Lessons from fintech-academic collaborations"
25-27 August 2025

25/08/2025

Antonio Gargano

Keynote
Emilia Bunea
Keynote: "Leadership for finance professionals: A CEO-turned-leadership-scholar perspective"
25-27 August 2025

25/08/2025

Emilia Bunea

Keynote
Emilia Bunea
Keynote: "Leadership for finance professionals: A CEO-turned-leadership-scholar perspective"
25-27 August 2025

25/08/2025

Emilia Bunea

Keynote
Allan Mendelowitz
Keynote: "The promise of digital finance: Greater transparency, enhanced efficiency, and more effective and less burdensome regulation"
25-27 August 2025

26/08/2025

Allan Mendelowitz

Keynote
Allan Mendelowitz
Keynote: "The promise of digital finance: Greater transparency, enhanced efficiency, and more effective and less burdensome regulation"
25-27 August 2025

26/08/2025

Allan Mendelowitz

Keynote
Albert Menkveld
Keynote: "What we can learn today about the markets of tomorrow: Crypto, crashes and credible research"
25-27 August 2025

27/08/2025

Albert Menkveld

Keynote
Albert Menkveld
Keynote: "What we can learn today about the markets of tomorrow: Crypto, crashes and credible research"
25-27 August 2025

27/08/2025

Albert Menkveld

Keynote